Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kristiansund BKvs
Sarpsborg 08The model puts Sarpsborg 08 at 46%. The model leans toward Sarpsborg 08. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sarpsborg 08.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sarpsborg 08 (1-2-3).
- +Kristiansund BK are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Sarpsborg 08 are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kristiansund BK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Kristiansund BK will be without Svendsen T., Tufekcic, Williamsen.
- Sarpsborg 08 will be without Carstensen F., Rosted S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Kristiansund BK at 30%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Sarpsborg 08 at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sarpsborg 08. Kristiansund BK is priced at 3.136. The draw is priced at 3.58. Sarpsborg 08 is priced at 2.2.
Kristiansund BK have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Sarpsborg 08 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Kristiansund BK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sarpsborg 08 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08?
Our model rates Sarpsborg 08 as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Kristiansund BK wins, 2 draws, 3 Sarpsborg 08 wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tromso | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Viking | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29:11 | 27 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30:11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 19:11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Molde | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20:15 | 20 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 18 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brann | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 26:21 | 16 |
| 9 |  Sandefjord | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15:22 | 14 |
| 11 |  Valerenga | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 12 |  Aalesunds | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17:22 | 12 |
| 13 |  Rosenborg | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:18 | 12 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 11:21 | 11 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:30 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.