Kilmarnock vs Raith Rovers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kilmarnockvs
Raith RoversThe model puts Kilmarnock at 53%. The model leans toward Kilmarnock. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Kilmarnock.
- −The head-to-head record favours Raith Rovers (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kilmarnock have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Raith Rovers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Kilmarnock is priced at 1.72.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Kilmarnock at 53%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Raith Rovers at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Kilmarnock. Kilmarnock is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 3.52. Raith Rovers is priced at 4.27.
Kilmarnock have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Raith Rovers have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Kilmarnock have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Kilmarnock are on 5 wins in a row. Raith Rovers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Raith Rovers are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kilmarnock or Raith Rovers?
Our model rates Kilmarnock as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kilmarnock vs Raith Rovers?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Kilmarnock wins, 1 draws, 4 Raith Rovers wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Kelty Hearts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.