East Fife vs Greenock Morton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
East Fifevs
Greenock MortonThe model puts Greenock Morton at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- East Fife have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greenock Morton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- East Fife have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Greenock Morton is priced at 2.18.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts East Fife at 31%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Greenock Morton at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. East Fife is priced at 2.931. The draw is priced at 3.34. Greenock Morton is priced at 2.18.
East Fife have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Greenock Morton have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
East Fife have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Greenock Morton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, East Fife or Greenock Morton?
Our model rates Greenock Morton as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for East Fife vs Greenock Morton?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 East Fife wins, 1 draws, 2 Greenock Morton wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Kelty Hearts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.