Dunfermline Athletic vs Dumbarton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dunfermline Athleticvs
DumbartonThe model puts Dunfermline Athletic at 73%. The model leans toward Dunfermline Athletic. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Dunfermline Athletic.
- −The head-to-head record favours Dumbarton (0-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dunfermline Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dumbarton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dunfermline Athletic is priced at 1.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dunfermline Athletic at 73%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Dumbarton at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Dunfermline Athletic. Dunfermline Athletic is priced at 1.23. The draw is priced at 5.25. Dumbarton is priced at 10.4.
Dumbarton have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Dunfermline Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Dumbarton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dunfermline Athletic or Dumbarton?
Our model rates Dunfermline Athletic as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dunfermline Athletic vs Dumbarton?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Dunfermline Athletic wins, 1 draws, 5 Dumbarton wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Kelty Hearts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.