Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lech Poznanvs
Gornik ZabrzeThe model puts Lech Poznan at 51%. The model leans toward Lech Poznan. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Lech Poznan are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lech Poznan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lech Poznan will be without Douglas, Jakobczyk, Gholizadeh, Sayyad.
- Lech Poznan is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lech Poznan at 51%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Gornik Zabrze at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.76. Gornik Zabrze is priced at 4.075.
Lech Poznan have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Gornik Zabrze have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lech Poznan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lech Poznan are on 2 wins in a row. Gornik Zabrze have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lech Poznan or Gornik Zabrze?
Our model rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Lech Poznan wins, 1 draws, 2 Gornik Zabrze wins.
Match statistics
Lech Poznan
- 1Lees
- 2Pereira J.V.
- 9Ishak M.
- 10Walemark
- 14Bengtsson L.
- 15Gurgul
- 27Monka
- 43Kozubal
- 59Yegbe
- 77Palma
- 99Rodriguez
- Douglas (Missing Player)
- Jakobczyk (Questionable)
- Gholizadeh (Missing Player)
- Sayyad (Missing Player)
Gornik Zabrze
- 1Schulze
- 4Bochniewicz
- 11Prekop
- 13Sadilek
- 14Kubicki J.
- 20Josema
- 33Khan Ma.
- 34Durdov
- 61Sacek
- 64Janza
- 82Urbanski K.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.