Tensung vs Thimphu City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tensungvs
Thimphu CityThe model puts Thimphu City at 82%. The model leans toward Thimphu City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Tensung (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Tensung have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Thimphu City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tensung have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Thimphu City is priced at 1.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tensung at 9%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Thimphu City at 82%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Thimphu City. Tensung is priced at 16. The draw is priced at 9.4. Thimphu City is priced at 1.06.
Tensung have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Thimphu City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Tensung have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Thimphu City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tensung or Thimphu City?
Our model rates Thimphu City as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tensung vs Thimphu City?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Tensung wins, 0 draws, 2 Thimphu City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Bhutan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 31:7 | 19 |
| 2 |  Transport United | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 | Thimphu City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19:6 | 17 |
| 4 |  RTC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 5 |  Thimphu | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  Tsirang | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:15 | 11 |
| 7 |  BFF Academy (Youth) | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 8 |  Drukpa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 10 |
| 9 | Tensung | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3:15 | 5 |
| 10 |  Ugyen Academy | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7:34 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.