Black Bulls vs Ferroviario Lichinga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Black Bullsvs
Ferroviario LichingaThe model puts Black Bulls at 66%. The model leans toward Black Bulls. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Black Bulls.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Black Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ferroviario Lichinga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Black Bulls have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Black Bulls is priced at 1.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Black Bulls at 66%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Ferroviario Lichinga at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Black Bulls. Black Bulls is priced at 1.33. The draw is priced at 4. Ferroviario Lichinga is priced at 10.
Black Bulls have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Ferroviario Lichinga have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Black Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ferroviario Lichinga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Ferroviario Lichinga are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Black Bulls or Ferroviario Lichinga?
Our model rates Black Bulls as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Black Bulls vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Black Bulls wins, 3 draws, 1 Ferroviario Lichinga wins.
League table
Mozambique Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Clube Ferroviário da Beira | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11:3 | 19 |
| 2 |  UD Songo | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 3 | Black Bulls | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:3 | 14 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nampula | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:11 | 13 |
| 6 |  Costa do Sol | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 7 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 8 |  Liga Desportiva de Sofala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:10 | 10 |
| 9 |  Vilankulo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Ferroviario Maputo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3:5 | 8 |
| 11 |  AD Pemba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:9 | 7 |
| 12 |  Chingale de Tete | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1:8 | 4 |
| 13 |  Baia de Pemba | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 14 |  Maxaquene | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3:10 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.