Maxaquene vs Vilankulo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Maxaquenevs
VilankuloThe model puts Maxaquene at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Vilankulo (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Maxaquene have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vilankulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Maxaquene have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Maxaquene is priced at 2.4.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Maxaquene at 38%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Vilankulo at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Maxaquene is priced at 2.4. The draw is priced at 2.88. Vilankulo is priced at 2.959.
Maxaquene have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Vilankulo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Maxaquene have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Vilankulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Maxaquene or Vilankulo?
Our model rates Maxaquene as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Maxaquene vs Vilankulo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Maxaquene wins, 2 draws, 3 Vilankulo wins.
League table
Mozambique Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Clube Ferroviário da Beira | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11:3 | 19 |
| 2 |  UD Songo | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Black Bulls | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:3 | 14 |
| 4 |  Ferroviario Lichinga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nampula | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:11 | 13 |
| 6 |  Costa do Sol | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 7 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 8 |  Liga Desportiva de Sofala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:10 | 10 |
| 9 | Vilankulo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Ferroviario Maputo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3:5 | 8 |
| 11 |  AD Pemba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:9 | 7 |
| 12 |  Chingale de Tete | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1:8 | 4 |
| 13 |  Baia de Pemba | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 14 | Maxaquene | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3:10 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.