Changwon City vs Gimhae City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Changwon Cityvs
Gimhae CityThe model puts Gimhae City at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Changwon City.
- −The head-to-head record favours Changwon City (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Changwon City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gimhae City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Changwon City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gimhae City is priced at 1.929.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Changwon City at 31%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Gimhae City at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Gimhae City. Changwon City is priced at 3.57. The draw is priced at 3.32. Gimhae City is priced at 1.929.
Changwon City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Gimhae City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Changwon City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Changwon City are on 2 wins in a row. Gimhae City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Changwon City or Gimhae City?
Our model rates Gimhae City as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Changwon City vs Gimhae City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Changwon City wins, 1 draws, 1 Gimhae City wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.