Vinotinto Ecuador vs Club Deportivo El Nacional: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vinotinto Ecuadorvs
Club Deportivo El NacionalThe model puts Vinotinto Ecuador at 71%. The model leans toward Vinotinto Ecuador. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Vinotinto Ecuador (2-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Vinotinto Ecuador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo El Nacional have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vinotinto Ecuador have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vinotinto Ecuador is priced at 1.295.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vinotinto Ecuador at 71%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Club Deportivo El Nacional at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Vinotinto Ecuador. Vinotinto Ecuador is priced at 1.295. The draw is priced at 4.5. Club Deportivo El Nacional is priced at 9.35.
Vinotinto Ecuador have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Club Deportivo El Nacional have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Vinotinto Ecuador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Deportivo El Nacional have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Deportivo El Nacional are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vinotinto Ecuador or Club Deportivo El Nacional?
Our model rates Vinotinto Ecuador as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vinotinto Ecuador vs Club Deportivo El Nacional?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Vinotinto Ecuador wins, 0 draws, 1 Club Deportivo El Nacional wins.
League table
Ecuador. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  9 de Octubre | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19:11 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atletico Guayaquil | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 17:12 | 27 |
| 3 |  Cuenca Juniors | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 18:18 | 26 |
| 4 |  Independiente Juniors | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:11 | 25 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Cumbaya | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  San Antonio Ibarra | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Santo Domingo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13:11 | 19 |
| 9 |  LDU de Portoviejo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:20 | 19 |
| 10 |  Gualaceo | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13:10 | 18 |
| 11 |  22 de Julio | 16 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 8:22 | 6 |
| 12 | Club Deportivo El Nacional | 16 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 9:27 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.