Thimphu vs Paro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Thimphuvs
ParoThe model puts Paro at 76%. The model leans toward Paro. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Thimphu have 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Paro have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paro is priced at 1.184.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | |
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Thimphu at 9%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Paro at 76%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-3.
The market leans toward Paro. Thimphu is priced at 10.7. The draw is priced at 6.1. Paro is priced at 1.184.
Thimphu have 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Thimphu are on 2 wins in a row. Paro have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Paro are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 86% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Thimphu or Paro?
Our model rates Paro as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Thimphu vs Paro?
A scoreline around 0-3 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Bhutan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Thimphu City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23:6 | 20 |
| 2 | Paro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 31:7 | 19 |
| 3 |  Transport United | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 4 |  RTC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 5 | Thimphu | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  Tsirang | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:15 | 11 |
| 7 |  BFF Academy (Youth) | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 8 |  Drukpa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 10 |
| 9 |  Tensung | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3:19 | 5 |
| 10 |  Ugyen Academy | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7:34 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.