Caravaggio Nova Veneza vs Tubarao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Caravaggio Nova Venezavs
TubaraoThe model puts Caravaggio Nova Veneza at 48%. The model leans toward Caravaggio Nova Veneza. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Caravaggio Nova Veneza.
- −The head-to-head record favours Tubarao (1-2-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Caravaggio Nova Veneza have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tubarao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Caravaggio Nova Veneza have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Caravaggio Nova Veneza is priced at 1.97.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Caravaggio Nova Veneza at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Tubarao at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Caravaggio Nova Veneza. Caravaggio Nova Veneza is priced at 1.97. The draw is priced at 3.15. Tubarao is priced at 3.62.
Caravaggio Nova Veneza have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Tubarao have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Caravaggio Nova Veneza have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Tubarao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Caravaggio Nova Veneza or Tubarao?
Our model rates Caravaggio Nova Veneza as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Caravaggio Nova Veneza vs Tubarao?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Caravaggio Nova Veneza wins, 2 draws, 2 Tubarao wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Second Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hercílio Luz | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30:9 | 32 |
| 2 |  Clube Atletico Metropolitano Blumenau | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25:17 | 29 |
| 3 | Caravaggio Nova Veneza | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 40:16 | 27 |
| 4 |  Blumenau | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 31:12 | 27 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Fluminense Joinville | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 14:18 | 18 |
| 7 |  Nacao Araquari | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 14:22 | 17 |
| 8 |  Guarani de Palhoca | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 14:23 | 16 |
| 9 |  Gremio Esportivo Juventus | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 13:20 | 14 |
| 10 |  Jaragua SC | 15 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 5:57 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.