Fluminense Joinville vs Guarani de Palhoca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fluminense Joinvillevs
Guarani de PalhocaThe model puts Fluminense Joinville at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fluminense Joinville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guarani de Palhoca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fluminense Joinville have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fluminense Joinville is priced at 2.35.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fluminense Joinville at 39%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Guarani de Palhoca at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fluminense Joinville is priced at 2.35. The draw is priced at 2.96. Guarani de Palhoca is priced at 2.957.
Fluminense Joinville have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Fluminense Joinville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guarani de Palhoca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fluminense Joinville or Guarani de Palhoca?
Our model rates Fluminense Joinville as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fluminense Joinville vs Guarani de Palhoca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Fluminense Joinville wins, 0 draws, 0 Guarani de Palhoca wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Second Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hercílio Luz | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30:9 | 32 |
| 2 |  Clube Atletico Metropolitano Blumenau | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 24:13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Caravaggio Nova Veneza | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 40:16 | 27 |
| 4 |  Blumenau | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 27:11 | 24 |
| 5 |  Tubarao | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Fluminense Joinville | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 13:17 | 17 |
| 7 | Guarani de Palhoca | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 13:22 | 15 |
| 8 |  Gremio Esportivo Juventus | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 13:20 | 14 |
| 9 |  Nacao Araquari | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12:22 | 14 |
| 10 |  Jaragua SC | 14 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 5:55 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.