Perolas Negras vs Marica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Perolas Negrasvs
MaricaThe model puts Marica at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Marica.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Perolas Negras have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Marica have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Perolas Negras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Marica is priced at 2.61.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Perolas Negras at 32%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Marica at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Perolas Negras is priced at 2.75. The draw is priced at 2.73. Marica is priced at 2.61.
Perolas Negras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Perolas Negras have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Marica have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Marica are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Perolas Negras or Marica?
Our model rates Marica as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Perolas Negras vs Marica?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Perolas Negras wins, 0 draws, 0 Marica wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.