America Rio de Janeiro vs Nova Iguacu: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
America Rio de Janeirovs
Nova IguacuThe model puts Nova Iguacu at 52%. The model leans toward Nova Iguacu. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nova Iguacu.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- America Rio de Janeiro have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nova Iguacu have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- America Rio de Janeiro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nova Iguacu is priced at 1.77.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts America Rio de Janeiro at 21%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Nova Iguacu at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Nova Iguacu. America Rio de Janeiro is priced at 4.285. The draw is priced at 3.3. Nova Iguacu is priced at 1.77.
America Rio de Janeiro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Nova Iguacu have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
America Rio de Janeiro have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Nova Iguacu have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, America Rio de Janeiro or Nova Iguacu?
Our model rates Nova Iguacu as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for America Rio de Janeiro vs Nova Iguacu?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 America Rio de Janeiro wins, 3 draws, 1 Nova Iguacu wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.