Araruama vs Boavista Sport Club: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Araruamavs
Boavista Sport ClubThe model puts Boavista Sport Club at 67%. The model leans toward Boavista Sport Club. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Araruama have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Boavista Sport Club is priced at 1.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Araruama at 11%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Boavista Sport Club at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Boavista Sport Club. Araruama is priced at 8.7. The draw is priced at 4.15. Boavista Sport Club is priced at 1.34.
Araruama have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 23% for both teams to score. The model gives 22% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Araruama or Boavista Sport Club?
Our model rates Boavista Sport Club as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Araruama vs Boavista Sport Club?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.