Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bunyodkorvs
Nasaf QarshiThe model puts Nasaf Qarshi at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bunyodkor have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nasaf Qarshi have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bunyodkor have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nasaf Qarshi is priced at 2.403.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bunyodkor at 32%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Nasaf Qarshi at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Bunyodkor is priced at 2.965. The draw is priced at 3.16. Nasaf Qarshi is priced at 2.403.
Bunyodkor have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bunyodkor have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Nasaf Qarshi have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bunyodkor or Nasaf Qarshi?
Our model rates Nasaf Qarshi as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Bunyodkor wins, 5 draws, 0 Nasaf Qarshi wins.
League table
Uzbekistan. Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25:3 | 28 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22:12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14:8 | 20 |
| 4 |  Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15:11 | 20 |
| 5 | Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13:11 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14:14 | 17 |
| 7 |  PFK Andijon | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  OKMK | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 9 | Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 13 |
| 11 |  Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 13 |
| 12 |  Surkhon Termez | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11:18 | 12 |
| 13 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 17:21 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:15 | 11 |
| 15 |  Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 19:25 | 9 |
| 16 |  Mash’al Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 4:21 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.