Neftchi Fergana vs Buxoro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Neftchi Ferganavs
BuxoroThe model puts Neftchi Fergana at 71%. The model leans toward Neftchi Fergana. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Neftchi Fergana.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Neftchi Fergana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Buxoro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Neftchi Fergana have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Neftchi Fergana is priced at 1.319.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Neftchi Fergana at 71%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Buxoro at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Neftchi Fergana. Neftchi Fergana is priced at 1.319. The draw is priced at 4.93. Buxoro is priced at 9.2.
Neftchi Fergana have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Buxoro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Neftchi Fergana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Buxoro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Neftchi Fergana or Buxoro?
Our model rates Neftchi Fergana as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Neftchi Fergana vs Buxoro?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Neftchi Fergana wins, 3 draws, 2 Buxoro wins.
League table
Uzbekistan. Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25:3 | 28 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22:12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14:8 | 20 |
| 4 | Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15:11 | 20 |
| 5 |  Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13:11 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14:14 | 17 |
| 7 |  PFK Andijon | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  OKMK | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 9 |  Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 13 |
| 11 |  Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 13 |
| 12 |  Surkhon Termez | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11:18 | 12 |
| 13 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 17:21 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:15 | 11 |
| 15 |  Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 19:25 | 9 |
| 16 |  Mash’al Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 4:21 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.