Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Xorazm Urganch: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sogdiana Jizzakhvs
Xorazm UrganchThe model puts Sogdiana Jizzakh at 52%. The model leans toward Sogdiana Jizzakh. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sogdiana Jizzakh.
- −The head-to-head record favours Xorazm Urganch (0-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sogdiana Jizzakh have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Xorazm Urganch have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sogdiana Jizzakh is priced at 1.83.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sogdiana Jizzakh at 52%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Xorazm Urganch at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sogdiana Jizzakh. Sogdiana Jizzakh is priced at 1.83. The draw is priced at 3.43. Xorazm Urganch is priced at 4.315.
Xorazm Urganch have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sogdiana Jizzakh have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Xorazm Urganch have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sogdiana Jizzakh or Xorazm Urganch?
Our model rates Sogdiana Jizzakh as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Xorazm Urganch?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Sogdiana Jizzakh wins, 2 draws, 4 Xorazm Urganch wins.
League table
Uzbekistan. Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25:3 | 28 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22:12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14:8 | 20 |
| 4 |  Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15:11 | 20 |
| 5 |  Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13:11 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14:14 | 17 |
| 7 |  PFK Andijon | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  OKMK | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 9 |  Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 10 | Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 13 |
| 11 |  Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 13 |
| 12 |  Surkhon Termez | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11:18 | 12 |
| 13 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 17:21 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:15 | 11 |
| 15 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 19:25 | 9 |
| 16 |  Mash’al Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 4:21 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.