Cumbaya vs 9 de Octubre: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cumbayavs
9 de OctubreThe model puts Cumbaya at 46%. The model leans toward Cumbaya. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours 9 de Octubre (1-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cumbaya have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 9 de Octubre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cumbaya have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cumbaya is priced at 1.94.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cumbaya at 46%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts 9 de Octubre at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Cumbaya. Cumbaya is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.05. 9 de Octubre is priced at 3.87.
Cumbaya have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. 9 de Octubre have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Cumbaya have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. 9 de Octubre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cumbaya or 9 de Octubre?
Our model rates Cumbaya as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cumbaya vs 9 de Octubre?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Cumbaya wins, 0 draws, 4 9 de Octubre wins.
League table
Ecuador. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Octubre | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19:11 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atletico Guayaquil | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 17:12 | 27 |
| 3 |  Vinotinto Ecuador | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 23:14 | 26 |
| 4 |  Cuenca Juniors | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 18:18 | 26 |
| 5 |  Independiente Juniors | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:11 | 25 |
| 6 | Cumbaya | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  San Antonio Ibarra | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Santo Domingo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13:11 | 19 |
| 9 |  LDU de Portoviejo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:20 | 19 |
| 10 |  Gualaceo | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13:10 | 18 |
| 11 |  22 de Julio | 16 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 8:22 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Deportivo El Nacional | 17 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 10:29 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.