Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al Ahedvs
Al NejmehThe model puts Al Nejmeh at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al Ahed have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Nejmeh have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Ahed have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al Nejmeh is priced at 2.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Al Ahed at 31%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Al Nejmeh at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Al Ahed is priced at 2.985. The draw is priced at 3.14. Al Nejmeh is priced at 2.23.
Al Ahed have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Al Nejmeh have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al Ahed have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Al Nejmeh have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al Ahed or Al Nejmeh?
Our model rates Al Nejmeh as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Al Ahed wins, 1 draws, 2 Al Nejmeh wins.
Odds movement
League table
Lebanese Championship (Play-off)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ahed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 1 |
| 2 |  Al-Ansar Beirut | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 1 |
| 3 | Al Nejmeh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Jwaya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.