Portugal vs Wales: Team Comparison
PortugalvsWales 
Comparing Portugal and Wales across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Portugal — a 77% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 16%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Portugal carry the stronger recent form, Portugal project for more goals (2.20 xG), Portugal have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Portugal | Metric | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Strength rating | 22 |
| 77% | Win probability | 8% |
| D W D W W | Recent form | L D D L W |
| 2 | Head-to-head wins | 0 |
| 2.20 | Expected goals | 0.40 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Portugal or Wales?
The model favours Portugal at 77%, with the draw at 16%.