Portugal vs Wales: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portugalvs
WalesThe model puts Portugal at 77%. The model leans toward Portugal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Portugal.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Portugal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wales have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portugal have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portugal is priced at 1.255.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portugal at 77%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Wales at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Portugal. Portugal is priced at 1.255. The draw is priced at 5.75. Wales is priced at 12.
Portugal have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Portugal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Wales have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portugal or Wales?
Our model rates Portugal as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portugal vs Wales?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Portugal wins, 0 draws, 0 Wales wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.