Mexico vs Ecuador: Team Comparison
MexicovsEcuador 
Comparing Mexico and Ecuador across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Mexico — a 46% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 30%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Mexico carry the stronger recent form, Mexico project for more goals (1.31 xG), Ecuador have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Mexico | Metric | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Strength rating | 50 |
| 46% | Win probability | 24% |
| W W W W W | Recent form | W D L W W |
| 1 | Head-to-head wins | 2 |
| 1.31 | Expected goals | 0.84 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Mexico or Ecuador?
The model favours Mexico at 46%, with the draw at 30%.