Mexico vs Ecuador: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mexicovs
EcuadorThe model puts Mexico at 46%. The model leans toward Mexico. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Mexico.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Mexico have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ecuador have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mexico have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mexico is priced at 2.207.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Mexico at 46%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Ecuador at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Mexico. Mexico is priced at 2.207. The draw is priced at 3.25. Ecuador is priced at 3.925.
Mexico have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Ecuador have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Mexico have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Mexico are on 5 wins in a row. Ecuador have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mexico average 2 goals per game this season. Mexico average 51% possession. Ecuador average 0 goals per game this season. Ecuador average 52% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mexico or Ecuador?
Our model rates Mexico as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mexico vs Ecuador?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Mexico wins, 3 draws, 2 Ecuador wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.