Portugal vs Croatia: Team Comparison
PortugalvsCroatia 
Comparing Portugal and Croatia across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Portugal — a 48% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 28%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Portugal carry the stronger recent form, Portugal project for more goals (2.74 xG), Croatia have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Portugal | Metric | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | Strength rating | 40 |
| 48% | Win probability | 24% |
| L W L L W | Recent form | D L D L L |
| 1 | Head-to-head wins | 3 |
| 2.74 | Expected goals | 1.66 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Portugal or Croatia?
The model favours Portugal at 48%, with the draw at 28%.