Portugal vs Croatia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portugalvs
CroatiaThe model puts Portugal at 48%. The model leans toward Portugal. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Croatia (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Portugal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Croatia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portugal is priced at 1.992.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portugal at 48%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Croatia at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Portugal. Portugal is priced at 1.992. The draw is priced at 3.495. Croatia is priced at 4.4.
Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Croatia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Portugal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Croatia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Portugal average 3 goals per game this season. Portugal average 71% possession. Croatia average 2 goals per game this season. Croatia average 53% possession.
The model gives 76% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portugal or Croatia?
Our model rates Portugal as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portugal vs Croatia?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Portugal wins, 2 draws, 3 Croatia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.