Portugal vs Spain: Team Comparison
PortugalvsSpain 
Comparing Portugal and Spain across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Spain — a 49% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 28%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Spain project for more goals (2.28 xG), Portugal have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Portugal | Metric | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | Strength rating | 68 |
| 24% | Win probability | 49% |
| W D W D W | Recent form | W W W D W |
| 1 | Head-to-head wins | 1 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals | 2.28 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Portugal or Spain?
The model favours Spain at 49%, with the draw at 28%.