Portugal vs Spain: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portugalvs
SpainThe model puts Spain at 49%. The model leans toward Spain. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Portugal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spain have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Spain is priced at 2.003.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portugal at 24%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Spain at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Spain. Portugal is priced at 4.115. The draw is priced at 3.66. Spain is priced at 2.003.
Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Spain have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Portugal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Spain have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Spain are on 3 wins in a row.
Portugal average 3 goals per game this season. Portugal average 67% possession. Spain average 1 goals per game this season. Spain average 67% possession.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portugal or Spain?
Our model rates Spain as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portugal vs Spain?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Portugal wins, 4 draws, 1 Spain wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.