Deportivo Toluca vs Pumas UNAM: Team Comparison
Deportivo TolucavsPumas UNAM 
Comparing Deportivo Toluca and Pumas UNAM across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Deportivo Toluca — a 60% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 21%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Deportivo Toluca carry the stronger recent form, Deportivo Toluca project for more goals (1.93 xG), Pumas UNAM have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Deportivo Toluca | Metric | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| 73 | Strength rating | 42 |
| 60% | Win probability | 19% |
| W W W W D | Recent form | W D L L L |
| 0 | Head-to-head wins | 2 |
| 1.93 | Expected goals | 0.72 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Deportivo Toluca or Pumas UNAM?
The model favours Deportivo Toluca at 60%, with the draw at 21%.