Deportivo Toluca vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Tolucavs
Pumas UNAMDeportivo Toluca are on 4 wins in a row. Pumas UNAM have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Deportivo Toluca.
- −The head-to-head record favours Pumas UNAM (0-4-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Toluca have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 60%.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
- The model gives 44% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Deportivo Toluca are on 4 wins in a row. Pumas UNAM have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Toluca have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Pumas UNAM have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 60%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Pumas UNAM at 19%.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Toluca or Pumas UNAM?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Deportivo Toluca wins, 4 draws, 2 Pumas UNAM wins.
Odds movement
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 11 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 | Pumas UNAM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.