Atletico Madrid vs Malaga: Team Comparison
Atletico MadridvsMalaga 
Comparing Atletico Madrid and Malaga across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Atletico Madrid — a 72% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 17%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form, Atletico Madrid project for more goals (2.19 xG), Malaga have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Atletico Madrid | Metric | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | Strength rating | 44 |
| 72% | Win probability | 11% |
| D D W D D | Recent form | W L L L W |
| 1 | Head-to-head wins | 5 |
| 2.19 | Expected goals | 0.49 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Atletico Madrid or Malaga?
The model favours Atletico Madrid at 72%, with the draw at 17%.