Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Team Comparison
Aston VillavsArsenal 
Comparing Aston Villa and Arsenal across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Arsenal — a 52% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 26%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Arsenal project for more goals (1.61 xG), Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Aston Villa | Metric | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Strength rating | 53 |
| 22% | Win probability | 52% |
| L L L W W | Recent form | L L L W W |
| 8 | Head-to-head wins | 6 |
| 0.95 | Expected goals | 1.61 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Aston Villa or Arsenal?
The model favours Arsenal at 52%, with the draw at 26%.