Manchester United vs Manchester City: Team Comparison
Manchester UnitedvsManchester City 
Comparing Manchester United and Manchester City across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Manchester City — a 47% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 23%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Manchester City carry the stronger recent form, Manchester City project for more goals (1.46 xG), Manchester City have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Manchester United | Metric | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 47 | Strength rating | 73 |
| 29% | Win probability | 47% |
| D W L L W | Recent form | W W W W L |
| 5 | Head-to-head wins | 9 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals | 1.46 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Manchester United or Manchester City?
The model favours Manchester City at 47%, with the draw at 23%.