Ajax vs Excelsior: Team Comparison
AjaxvsExcelsior 
Comparing Ajax and Excelsior across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Ajax — a 71% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 15%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Excelsior carry the stronger recent form, Ajax project for more goals (4.25 xG), Excelsior have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Ajax | Metric | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Strength rating | 53 |
| 71% | Win probability | 14% |
| W D W L W | Recent form | W W W L W |
| 2 | Head-to-head wins | 9 |
| 4.25 | Expected goals | 1.05 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Ajax or Excelsior?
The model favours Ajax at 71%, with the draw at 15%.