Ajax vs Excelsior: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ajaxvs
ExcelsiorThe model puts Ajax at 71%. The model leans toward Ajax. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Excelsior (2-4-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Ajax have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ajax have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ajax is priced at 1.296.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ajax at 71%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Excelsior at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 4-1.
The market leans toward Ajax. Ajax is priced at 1.296. The draw is priced at 6.05. Excelsior is priced at 8.6.
Ajax have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Excelsior have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ajax have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Excelsior have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Excelsior are on 3 wins in a row.
Ajax average 2 goals per game this season. Ajax average 54% possession. Excelsior average 4 goals per game this season. Excelsior average 53% possession.
The model gives 64% for both teams to score. The model gives 90% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ajax or Excelsior?
Our model rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ajax vs Excelsior?
A scoreline around 4-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Ajax wins, 4 draws, 9 Excelsior wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 13 |
| 5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 10 |
| 6 | Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 9 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:11 | 5 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:14 | 2 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.