France vs Italy: Team Comparison
FrancevsItaly 
Comparing France and Italy across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward France — a 64% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 19%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: France project for more goals (1.91 xG), Italy have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| France | Metric | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 78 | Strength rating | 54 |
| 64% | Win probability | 17% |
| W W W W L | Recent form | W W W L W |
| 3 | Head-to-head wins | 7 |
| 1.91 | Expected goals | 0.69 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, France or Italy?
The model favours France at 64%, with the draw at 19%.