France vs Italy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
ItalyThe model puts France at 64%. The model leans toward France. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Italy (3-3-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- France have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Italy have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 1.435.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts France at 64%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Italy at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward France. France is priced at 1.435. The draw is priced at 4.84. Italy is priced at 6.6.
France have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Italy have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
France have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. France are on 4 wins in a row. Italy have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Italy are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or Italy?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs Italy?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 3 France wins, 3 draws, 7 Italy wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.