Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Team Comparison
Newcastle UnitedvsAston Villa 
Comparing Newcastle United and Aston Villa across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Newcastle United — a 48% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 25%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Newcastle United carry the stronger recent form, Newcastle United project for more goals (1.64 xG), Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Newcastle United | Metric | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Strength rating | 41 |
| 48% | Win probability | 28% |
| W W W W W | Recent form | L L W D W |
| 5 | Head-to-head wins | 6 |
| 1.64 | Expected goals | 0.99 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Newcastle United or Aston Villa?
The model favours Newcastle United at 48%, with the draw at 25%.