Croatia vs Spain: Team Comparison
CroatiavsSpain 
Comparing Croatia and Spain across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Spain — a 68% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 17%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Spain carry the stronger recent form, Spain project for more goals (3.50 xG), Croatia have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Croatia | Metric | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Strength rating | 74 |
| 15% | Win probability | 68% |
| L W L W L | Recent form | W W L L W |
| 8 | Head-to-head wins | 2 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals | 3.50 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Croatia or Spain?
The model favours Spain at 68%, with the draw at 17%.