Croatia vs Spain: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Croatiavs
SpainThe model puts Spain at 68%. The model leans toward Spain. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Spain.
- −The head-to-head record favours Croatia (8-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Croatia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spain have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Croatia have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Spain is priced at 1.37.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Croatia at 15%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Spain at 68%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-3.
The market leans toward Spain. Croatia is priced at 7.7. The draw is priced at 5.1. Spain is priced at 1.37.
Croatia have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Spain have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Croatia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Spain have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Spain are on 2 wins in a row.
Croatia average 2 goals per game this season. Croatia average 56% possession. Spain average 3 goals per game this season. Spain average 53% possession.
The model gives 64% for both teams to score. The model gives 83% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Croatia or Spain?
Our model rates Spain as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Croatia vs Spain?
A scoreline around 1-3 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 8 Croatia wins, 1 draws, 2 Spain wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.