Italy vs Turkey: Team Comparison
ItalyvsTurkey 
Comparing Italy and Turkey across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Italy — a 56% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 22%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Italy project for more goals (1.95 xG), Turkey have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Italy | Metric | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| 65 | Strength rating | 45 |
| 56% | Win probability | 22% |
| W W L W L | Recent form | L W W W L |
| 0 | Head-to-head wins | 4 |
| 1.95 | Expected goals | 0.95 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Italy or Turkey?
The model favours Italy at 56%, with the draw at 22%.