Italy vs Turkey: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Italyvs
TurkeyThe model puts Italy at 61%. The model leans toward Italy. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Turkey (0-3-4).
- −Italy are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Turkey are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Italy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Turkey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Italy will be without Kean M., Cristante, Chiesa, Lokatelli, Meret, Raspadori, Spinazzola.
- Turkey will be without Topcu E.H., Uzun, Guler Ar., Yildiz, Yilmaz, Kokcu O., Muldur, Calhanoglu.
- Italy is priced at 1.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 25 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Italy at 61%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Turkey at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Italy. Italy is priced at 1.5. The draw is priced at 4.46. Turkey is priced at 6.15.
Turkey have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Italy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Turkey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Italy average 0 goals per game this season. Italy average 56% possession. Turkey average 0 goals per game this season. Turkey average 46% possession.
The model gives 19% for both teams to score. The model gives 14% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Italy or Turkey?
Our model rates Italy as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Italy vs Turkey?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 0 Italy wins, 3 draws, 4 Turkey wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.