Italy vs Turkey: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Italyvs
TurkeyThe model puts Italy at 56%. The model leans toward Italy. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Italy.
- −The head-to-head record favours Turkey (0-3-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Italy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Turkey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Italy is priced at 1.688.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Italy at 56%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Turkey at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Italy. Italy is priced at 1.688. The draw is priced at 3.96. Turkey is priced at 4.8.
Turkey have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Italy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Italy are on 2 wins in a row. Turkey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Italy or Turkey?
Our model rates Italy as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Italy vs Turkey?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 0 Italy wins, 3 draws, 4 Turkey wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.