Serbia vs Greece: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Serbiavs
GreeceThe model puts Serbia at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Serbia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Serbia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greece have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Serbia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Serbia is priced at 2.616.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Serbia at 39%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Greece at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Serbia is priced at 2.616. The draw is priced at 3.34. Greece is priced at 2.695.
Serbia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Greece have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Serbia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Greece have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Serbia or Greece?
Our model rates Serbia as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Serbia vs Greece?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Serbia wins, 0 draws, 1 Greece wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.