Liechtenstein vs Lithuania: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liechtensteinvs
LithuaniaThe model puts Lithuania at 67%. The model leans toward Lithuania. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liechtenstein.
- −The head-to-head record favours Liechtenstein (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liechtenstein have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lithuania have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liechtenstein have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lithuania is priced at 1.395.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liechtenstein at 12%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Lithuania at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Lithuania. Liechtenstein is priced at 10. The draw is priced at 4.16. Lithuania is priced at 1.395.
Liechtenstein have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Lithuania have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liechtenstein have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lithuania have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liechtenstein or Lithuania?
Our model rates Lithuania as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liechtenstein vs Lithuania?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Liechtenstein wins, 1 draws, 1 Lithuania wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League D| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.