UEFA Nations League

Armenia vs Latvia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Armeniavs

Latvia

Our predictionArmenia to win

Model score: Medium · 38/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Armenia at 54%. The model leans toward Armenia. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Armenia54%

Draw27%

2 · Latvia20%

1 · ArmeniaDraw2 · Latvia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.92+4.1%

1X2Draw3.68+0.8%

1X2Latvia4.74-0.2%

1X2Armenia1.75-0.6%

BTTSYes1.80-4.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

ArmeniaWDLWL

LatviaDDWLW

Team strength rating

Armenia

Latvia

Most likely scorelines

1-012.9%

2-011.2%

1-111.1%

2-19.7%

0-07.4%

3-06.5%

Expected goals

1.74Armenia

0.86Latvia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score48%

Match DNA

Armenia Latvia

Key points

Armenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Latvia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Armenia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Armenia is priced at 1.75.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Armenia win1.75Fair (-0.6%)

Double chanceArmenia or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	3
1	13	11	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	7	6	2
4	3	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Armenia at 54%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Latvia at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Armenia. Armenia is priced at 1.75. The draw is priced at 3.68. Latvia is priced at 4.74.

Armenia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Latvia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Armenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Latvia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →