UEFA Nations League

Montenegro vs Cyprus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Montenegrovs

Cyprus

Our predictionMontenegro to win

Model score: High · 86/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Montenegro at 63%. The model leans toward Montenegro. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours Montenegro (2-3-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Montenegro63%

Draw24%

2 · Cyprus13%

1 · MontenegroDraw2 · Cyprus

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.66+3.1%

1X2Montenegro1.52+0.8%

1X2Cyprus7.10-0.3%

1X2Draw3.92-0.5%

BTTSYes2.11-3.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

MontenegroDWLWL

CyprusWDWLL

Team strength rating

Montenegro

Cyprus

Most likely scorelines

1-014.5%

2-014.1%

1-19.4%

3-09.2%

2-19.2%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.95Montenegro

0.65Cyprus

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score41%

Match DNA

Montenegro Cyprus

Key points

Montenegro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cyprus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Montenegro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Montenegro is priced at 1.52.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Montenegro win1.52Fair (+0.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	5	2
1	14	9	3
2	14	9	3
3	9	6	2
4	4	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Montenegro at 63%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Cyprus at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Montenegro. Montenegro is priced at 1.52. The draw is priced at 3.92. Cyprus is priced at 7.1.

Montenegro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Montenegro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Cyprus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →