Sweden vs Romania: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Swedenvs
RomaniaThe model puts Sweden at 59%. The model leans toward Sweden. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Romania.
- −The head-to-head record favours Romania (1-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sweden have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Romania have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sweden have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sweden is priced at 1.54.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sweden at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Romania at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sweden. Sweden is priced at 1.54. The draw is priced at 4.44. Romania is priced at 5.55.
Sweden have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Romania have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sweden have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Romania have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sweden or Romania?
Our model rates Sweden as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sweden vs Romania?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Sweden wins, 1 draws, 2 Romania wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.