UEFA Nations League

Slovakia vs Moldova: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Slovakiavs

Moldova

Our predictionSlovakia to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Slovakia at 73%. The model leans toward Slovakia. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Slovakia.

Win probabilities

1 · Slovakia73%

Draw18%

2 · Moldova9%

1 · SlovakiaDraw2 · Moldova

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.62+9.4%

1X2Slovakia1.31+0.9%

1X2Moldova10.00-0.3%

1X2Draw5.10-0.6%

BTTSYes2.19-9.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Slovakia

Moldova

Recent form

SlovakiaDWWLL

MoldovaDDLLL

Most likely scorelines

2-016.9%

1-015.8%

3-012.0%

2-17.9%

1-17.4%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

2.13Slovakia

0.47Moldova

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score33%

Match DNA

Slovakia Moldova

Key points

Slovakia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Moldova have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Slovakia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Slovakia is priced at 1.31.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Slovakia win1.31Fair (+0.9%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	16	7	2
2	17	8	2
3	12	6	1
4	6	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Slovakia at 73%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Moldova at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Slovakia. Slovakia is priced at 1.31. The draw is priced at 5.1. Moldova is priced at 10.

Slovakia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Slovakia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Moldova have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →