Czech Republic vs Croatia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Czech Republicvs
CroatiaThe model puts Croatia at 45%. The model leans toward Croatia. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Croatia.
- +The head-to-head record favours Croatia (0-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Czech Republic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Croatia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Croatia is priced at 2.285.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Czech Republic at 29%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Croatia at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Czech Republic is priced at 3.056. The draw is priced at 3.48. Croatia is priced at 2.285.
Croatia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Czech Republic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Croatia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Croatia are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Czech Republic or Croatia?
Our model rates Croatia as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Czech Republic vs Croatia?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Czech Republic wins, 3 draws, 2 Croatia wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.